Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Done This Since 2018

The Bitcoin Price is approaching a historical pattern not seen since the 2018–2019 bear market. Over the past several months, Bitcoin has closed in the red repeatedly, meaning each monthly candle finished lower than it opened. Consecutive red months are rare in Bitcoin’s history, and the current streak is drawing attention across the market. The only time Bitcoin recorded six straight monthly losses was between August 2018 and January 2019.

If February closes lower again, it would mark only the second occurrence of such sustained monthly weakness in Bitcoin’s trading history.

What Are “Red Months” in Bitcoin?

In market terminology, a “red month” occurs when Bitcoin closes the month at a lower price than where it began, signaling sustained selling pressure over that period. While short-term pullbacks are common, extended streaks of monthly declines are far less frequent. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience sharp corrections followed by recovery phases rather than prolonged, steady downturns.

This is why the current sequence of red monthly closes stands out. Multiple consecutive declines can influence investor sentiment, reduce risk appetite, and increase caution among both short-term traders and long-term holders.

As the month progresses, analysts and market participants are closely watching whether this pattern continues, as it could shape expectations for the coming quarters.

The Only Time Bitcoin Did This Before – 2018/2019

Continuing from the theme of Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Done This Since 2018, the last time such persistent monthly weakness occurred was during the 2018 bear market. Between August 2018 and January 2019, Bitcoin recorded six consecutive red months - the longest losing streak in its history. That period followed the sharp unwind of the 2017 rally, when excessive speculation gave way to declining demand and tightening liquidity.

Prices gradually compressed lower before eventually forming a bottom. The historical importance of that stretch lies not just in the declines themselves, but in what followed: a prolonged phase of stabilization and accumulation before Bitcoin began recovering in the months ahead.

Why This Current Streak Matters

The reason this pattern matters today is rooted in market psychology. When the Bitcoin Price approaches a rare sequence of consecutive red months, sentiment often shifts from optimism to caution. Extended declines can influence long-term holders, reduce speculative activity, and increase defensive positioning among traders. Historically, Bitcoin corrections have tended to be sharp but relatively brief, typically lasting two to three months before stabilization.

A longer streak suggests broader structural pressure rather than short-term volatility. If February closes lower, it would reinforce the narrative of sustained downside momentum, making this period one of the most closely monitored phases in recent Bitcoin market cycles.

Analysts Point to $40K–$50K as Possible Bottom

As the Bitcoin Price extends this unusual monthly pattern, analysts are beginning to identify potential downside levels based on historical technical indicators. Some market observers suggest that the $40,000–$50,000 range could act as a possible bottom zone if selling pressure continues.

This projection is largely tied to the 200-week moving average, a long-term trend indicator that has historically provided structural support during previous bear markets. It is important to note that these levels represent analyst projections rather than guarantees.

However, in past cycles, when Bitcoin approached or briefly broke below the 200-week moving average, it often entered a consolidation phase before establishing a clearer recovery trend.

What Happens If the 200-Week Moving Average Breaks?

A key reason analysts are focusing on this level is the historical importance of the 200-week moving average. This indicator tracks the average Bitcoin Price over roughly four years and is widely viewed as a long-term trend benchmark. In previous bear markets, Bitcoin has approached or briefly dipped below this level before stabilizing.

When that occurred, price action often transitioned into a sideways phase lasting several months. Such periods are sometimes described as accumulation zones, where volatility gradually compresses and market participants reassess long-term positioning. If current projections toward the $40,000–$50,000 range materialize, a similar consolidation pattern could emerge before the next decisive directional move.

Bitcoin Has Survived Worse

Although the current monthly streak appears unusual, Bitcoin has experienced severe drawdowns before and eventually recovered in each major cycle. Looking at past downturns provides broader context:

• 2014 Bear Market: After the early exchange-era rally, Bitcoin declined more than 80% from its peak, entering a prolonged consolidation before gradually rebuilding momentum.
• 2018–2019 Downtrend: Following the 2017 surge, Bitcoin recorded six consecutive red months, compressing lower before forming a bottom and transitioning into accumulation.
• March 2020 Selloff: During global market panic, Bitcoin dropped sharply within weeks, yet recovery followed as liquidity returned.

In each instance, the Bitcoin Price endured extended pressure but eventually stabilized and resumed long-term growth. While historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, they illustrate that prolonged weakness has occurred before within Bitcoin’s broader market structure.

Final Thoughts

The current monthly streak places the Bitcoin Price in a technically sensitive position. While consecutive red months remain rare, history shows that extended downturns are not unprecedented within Bitcoin’s broader cycle structure. Analysts continue monitoring key support zones, including the 200-week moving average and the projected $40,000–$50,000 range, but these remain projections rather than certainties.

If February closes lower, it would mark only the second time Bitcoin has experienced such persistent monthly declines. Whether this phase leads to further downside or a prolonged consolidation, the coming months are likely to play a defining role in shaping the next chapter of Bitcoin’s market cycle.